Asian energy buyers are reconsidering their dependence on imported natural gas as the Iran conflict drives prices higher and raises questions about supply reliability, a speaker told a government meeting Tuesday.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent spot LNG prices to $28 per million BTU. That makes a single tanker load worth close to $100 million. The price shock is prompting countries that had moved away from coal and nuclear power to reconsider those options, even as new LNG export projects come online worldwide.

"Japan, South Korea, Thailand, China, this is going back to coal," the speaker said. "The real question for the LNG industry is, had the high prices and the supply uncertainty, you know, this year it is Qatar and Iran and Strait of Hormuz, maybe that gets solved. Maybe the solution lasts for three years. What happens next time they close?"

China's LNG imports dropped 11 percent last year to their lowest level since 2018. Japan's imports have fallen below pre-Fukushima disaster levels from 2011. The speaker cited a Vietnamese power company that asked its government for permission to scrap an approved gas-fired plant in favor of renewables.

"This tying our future to LNG is just too risky for us," the speaker said, characterizing the company's position.

The International Energy Agency director commented that high energy prices will lead governments, industries and households to look at other options. The head of the European Union suggested that abandoning nuclear power may have been a mistake.

Projects currently under construction in Canada, Alaska, Mexico, Nigeria, Australia and elsewhere will add close to 15 percent to global LNG supply this year and next. Those projects were betting on increasing demand from artificial intelligence, data centers and electrification. Most have long-term contracts requiring buyers to take the gas or pay for unused capacity.

But the next wave of projects faces uncertainty about whether buyers will still be there. The speaker noted that coal offers more certain supply at lower cost. Nuclear power and renewables are domestic sources not subject to international supply disruptions.

"You read more and more, Washington Post today had a story saying maybe the long-term effect of the Iran war on the Strait of Hormuz is going to be to undercut the LNG export industry," the speaker said. "No one knows, right? It is just pick a consultant, they will give you a different view. But it is a real concern out there."

The speaker acknowledged that while the United States is a more stable supplier than Iran or other Persian Gulf countries, American political issues have turned off some potential buyers.

Gas is cleaner than coal, the speaker said, but coal is cheaper and offers more certain supply. Nuclear power, once capital costs are absorbed and meltdown concerns overcome, provides dependable domestic energy. Renewables are also domestic sources.

The comments came during a discussion that also covered British Columbia's LNG projects and alternative export options for Alaska's North Slope gas.